Topic: Economic Outlook for the U.S. and San Diego

Speaker: Alan Nevin, Director of Economic & Market Research at the Xpera Group

Presentation:
The worldwide coronavirus, or CoViD-19, pandemic and the US response to it has brought our economy, almost overnight, from the longest running boom in American history to the edge of a depression. In this unprecedented time, over 1.8 million people in the US have been infected, with the death toll having passed the 100K mark last week. The nation is looking at upwards of 40 million unemployed, with the federal government dispensing economic stimulus funds measured in the trillions of dollars, and with each of the 50 states following its own unique formula for reopening businesses, beaches and other parts of society within its respective borders.

With each state seeking its own “right“ tradeoffs between the benefits of reopening its economy versus the potential costs of further CoViD-19 deaths, all being done in an environment of constant second-guessing by its own citizens and by the White House, the haunting specter remains of a “second wave“, a resurgence and recurrence of another round of CV-19 infection, followed by renewed needs for further lockdowns.

What will be the short and long term economic effects of all this? When -- and how -- will it all settle down? Will there be a definable “new normal“ for how different businesses and other organizations will run? What effects will there be on international trade, and on global supply chains?

The list of questions goes on. The answers to them are difficult and, realistically, may be ephemeral at best at this point. But thinking through the issues is nonetheless essential, in order for businesses to take the first steps, and then the next ones, to keep themselves functioning in today’s world as well as tomorrow’s, next month’s and next year’s.

Normally at this point in the meeting announcement, we show what definitive information you can expect to take away from the meeting. This time -- both this meeting and this time period in the country and the world -- is different.

Alan will have some good insights and some thought-provoking analyses and forecasts, and some sobering and eye-opening comments. Come hear them and join the discussion.


About our speaker:
Alan Nevin is one of San Diego's best known economists, and one of its most popular speakers in the areas of real estate and economic issues. This will be his fifth time appearing before the San Diego FENG in the past 13 years.

As the Director of Economic and Market Research for the Xpera Group, he brings an extensive background in forensic real estate expert witness services, demographic and economic forecasting, and real estate development and investment analysis. As part of the Xpera Group, Alan also provides expertise in real estate feasibility studies and valuations, economic damages and loss of value, and other advisory services to high net worth individuals.

Prior to his association with Xpera Group, Alan served as a Principal with the London Group, Director of Economic Research for MarketPointe Realty Advisors, Senior Vice President of the Sanford Goodkin Research Corporation, Director of Real Estate Research for HomeFed Bank, Director of Research for ConAm Asset Management Corporation, one of the nation’s largest apartment property management and development firms, and President of ConAm Securities. Alan is the co-founder of firms that bought, built, rehabbed and operated more than three dozen residential and commercial projects in San Diego County, valued in excess of $250 million. He was also a founding member of three savings and loan associations.

In 2016, Alan published his landmark book, The Great Divide: The True Story of America Tomorrow, detailing America's demographic and economic trends, and where those trends will take the country for the next 25 years.

And since Alan has been around longer than most of us, his outlook is informed by a long and rich set of experiences -- booms, busts, wars, pandemics, inventions, fads, trends and more -- that give him a unique vantage point from which to dispense wisdom as to how we will emerge from the coronavirus pandemic.

Alan holds a Master’s Degree in Statistical Research from Stanford University, as well as MBA and Bachelor’s Degrees from American University in real estate demographics and economics. He has been an instructor at UC San Diego Extension since 1980, and is a founding member of the UCSD Economics Roundtable. He is a guest lecturer and member of the curriculum committee at the University of San Diego Burnham-Moores School of Real Estate, and a member of the Advisory Committee at the School of Business at National University.

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CPE Credits: Reminder for those members maintaining their professional certifications - we offer the documentation for Continuing Professional Education (CPE) credits for our speaker presentations. For those members interested in this, you may complete the appropriate forms, which we'll have available at the meeting, for 1.0 hours of CPE credit