Topic:  Outlook for the U.S. Economy 

Speaker:  Dan North, Senior Economist with Allianz Trade North America

CPE credit: 1.0 hour will be given to all participants requesting it, and who are present for the presentation
 

Presentation:
In order to plan for the future, a solid understanding of where the macroeconomy will take us is a necessity. We've been hearing from some folks for a year that the economy is on the brink of a recession. Are they right, but just a little delayed? Or are they wrong, and the economy will continue strong? Dan North will show us how the U.S. economy still has some steam left in it, with the labor market remaining as the last bastion of strength. Most other measures, however, are showing a definitive decay.

Dan will show us how the Federal Reserve has been the main cause of our current situation. First it created inflation by leaving too much easy money in place for too long. Then it waited far too long to attack the resulting inflation. By the time it did start tightening, it was hopelessly behind the curve. As a result it has had to be highly aggressive in raising rates to slay inflation, and will likely strangle the economy in the process. The destruction is already showing up in the housing market, manufacturing, consumption, and now, in the labor market as well. Several leading indicators are strongly suggesting recession in 2023, but it may well be short and shallow.

In this talk, Dan North will give us an in-depth look into the economy, why there's been no recession but one is coming soon. Dan is an engaging speaker with a great ability to explain complex economic concepts in a way that we can all understand.

About our speaker:
Dan North is Senior Economist for Allianz Trade North America, the world's largest provider of trade credit insurance. Dan has been with Allianz Trade North America, formerly Euler Hermes, since 1996, using macroeconomic analysis to help manage the company's risk portfolio of more than $150 billion in annual U.S. trade transactions.

Dan has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business News, and Bloomberg Radio and Television. He has been quoted by Business Week, the Financial Times, NBC, the BBC, the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal. After having predicted the 2008/2009 recession and its implications accurately, he was ranked 4th on Bloomberg’s list of the 65 top economic forecasters in 2010.

Prior to his work with Allianz Trade North America, Dan was with Citicorp doing investment research, designed outperforming equity and asset allocation portfolios. He earlier worked as a marine engineer with Engineering Computer Optecnomics.

Dan holds a BS in engineering from University of Virginia, and an MBA from the Wharton School of Business.

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To Attend:
Meetings are for members, prospective members and invited guests only. For non-members, RSVP is required by writing to chapter chair, Dan Ruchman at [email protected]. Please include a one or two sentence description of who you are, and your interest in attending the meeting. Thank you.

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CPE Credits: Reminder for those members maintaining their professional certifications - we offer the documentation for Continuing Professional Education (CPE) credits for our speaker presentations. For those members interested in this, you may complete the appropriate forms, which we'll have available at the meeting, for 1.0 hours of CPE credit

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