Topic:  US Election Scenarios and Foreign Currency Outlook

Speakers: Michael Pugliese, Executive Director and Senior Economist; Brendan McKenna, Executive Director and International Economist - Wells Fargo Corporate and Investment Banking

Presentation:
Join us September 25th at 12pm PT/3pm ET for a virtual event focusing on key election scenarios and short-term outlook for foreign currencies.

Election Day is rapidly approaching in the United States. Control of the White House and Congress will dictate the economic policy agenda in 2025 and beyond, and potential policy changes will have important implications for our economic forecast. During this session, Wells Fargo economists will address the following questions:

- What is the state of the race for the presidency and Congress?
- How will policymakers handle the looming expiration of large parts of the 2017 tax cuts?
- How would a sharp increase in tariffs on U.S. imports impact economic growth and inflation?
- What is the outlook for the large and growing federal budget deficit, and will it impact the path ahead for interest rates?

From a currency perspective we will walk through our short-term outlook for U.S. dollar strength leading into the election. We will also touch on the long-term view for dollar depreciation, but how risks are skewed toward “stronger for longer” on potential safe haven demand should U.S. policy turn more protectionist following the election.

Speakers’ bios:

Michael Pugliese is an executive director and senior economist with Wells Fargo’s Corporate and Investment Bank. Based in New York City, Michael covers the U.S. economy with a primary focus on the labor market, inflation, monetary policy and fiscal policy. Michael plays a lead role in producing the economics team’s U.S. and international interest rate forecasts. His work has been published in academic journals and cited by major media outlets such as The Wall Street Journal, POLITICO, USA Today and Bloomberg News. He is a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg TV and National Public Radio. Michael’s contributions have been recognized in two books: The New York Times best seller “The Kennedy Half-Century” and “Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era.” Previously, Michael worked as a research analyst under Dr. Larry Sabato at the University of Virginia Center for Politics and was a presidential fellow at the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress. He graduated from the University of Virginia with a B.A. in economics and a second major in American government. He earned a M.A. in economics from New York University.

Brendan McKenna is an executive director and international economist for Wells Fargo Corporate and Investment Banking. Based in New York City, he provides commentary on global macroeconomic developments and foreign exchange markets through several Wells Fargo publications, with a primary focus on emerging markets. Before joining Wells Fargo, he worked as a macro strategist for Citigroup in New York, where he was responsible for identifying thematic macroeconomic trends as well as analyzing individual economies with a particular focus on emerging markets.  Brendan graduated from Fairfield University with a B.S. in finance and received his M.B.A. with a dual concentration in capital markets and investments as well as corporate finance from the Kenan-Flagler Business School at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.